Hooniverse Asks: What Modern Car Will be The Most Challenging Future Collectible?

Lotus_Elan_M100_Fed
The original Lotus Elan, offered from ’62 to ’73, was a simple car using many off the shelf parts. That made its maintenance and eventually custodial ownership a pretty simple matter as those parts were easy to obtain. The same can’t be said of its spiritual descendent, the FWD Elan of the early ’90s. That car too shared parts with more common cars, but also had certain unique items that over time wear out and now are hard to find, things like the rubber weather seal around top.
It’s not just limited production cars that can suffer from this either. Even cars and trucks built in significant numbers can run into the same problem as time passes and their numbers decline, should they have some odd feature—like Nivomat suspension—the parts can become harder and harder to find, making their ownership a pain.
What we’re wondering today is what modern car has just such a feature—an aspect that you think is going to be hard or impossible to maintain—making them a frustrating choice as a future collectible?
Image: Wikipedia

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  1. Sjalabais Avatar
    Sjalabais

    Early electric cars from standalone companies*. A contender would be the Th!nk – subsidised to oblivion by the Norwegian government, bankcrupt nine times at the last count, with Ford being in the picture along the way.
    https://news.uns.purdue.edu/images/2011/sscc-think.jpg
    *I willfully apply the hooniversal notion that all cars are collectible. Free hugs for ZAZ’s and all.

    1. Kiefmo Avatar
      Kiefmo

      Might be, but the EV hobbyist crowd (the types that I can see owning a classic EV) is a resourceful lot, and I don’t think there will be a whole heap of concern for originality in the parts that go “whirrrrr”, considering they’re a bunch that never wants to stop tinkering.

      1. engineerd Avatar
        engineerd

        Yeah, they don’t seem the type to put much premium in a “numbers matching” car considering the original batteries will require replacement from the get go.

        1. mdharrell Avatar

          Well, um, that is, you see, some of us may, just may, have been known to have acquired a parts car in order to keep a 1977 Lyman Electric Quad in show condition….
          https://farm8.staticflickr.com/7560/15716476087_8f5d6a84f9_z.jpg

          1. Sjalabais Avatar
            Sjalabais

            You just busted a cliché by being cliché-mdharrell. The metaimplications for us armchair analysts will have repercussions for years to come. Or so they say.

          2. Alff Avatar
            Alff

            I want to attend the show where all manner of ’70s electric buggies are considered full classic.

          3. Alff Avatar
            Alff

            My hippy-free state doesn’t host a show. Given typical travel distances here in the plains, it’s no surprise you don’t see a lot of plug ins here.

          4. mdharrell Avatar

            I didn’t attempt to drive the Lyman from Seattle to Issaquah, either. There’s a reason it was on that trailer.

          5. Texlenin Avatar
            Texlenin

            “Yeah,Man…it’s like a 74 quad-cab Kombi Synchro with a Mr. Fusion
            and 12 Carbon/Graphene Nanotube Supercapacitors,man….
            Runs 5’s in the 1320 meters, man…..

    2. mdharrell Avatar

      Case in point, with the additional challenge of systematic destruction:
      http://i160.photobucket.com/albums/t175/jcwinni/Crushed_EV1s.gif

    3. Andrew_theS2kBore Avatar
      Andrew_theS2kBore

      I would amend that Hooniversal notion by saying that all cars BECOME collectible as the number that have been preserved drops toward the number of Hoonitarians who actually want one.

  2. Kiefmo Avatar
    Kiefmo

    Eventually, we’re going to have trouble sourcing a combustible substance that closely approximates the BTU, octane, atomization, and viscosity of the stuff that is detonated in a controlled manner within the lumps of iron, aluminum, and steel under the hood. That’s gonna hit us all, and we’ll have the agonizing choice of parking it for long times, or converting power sources.

    1. BigRedCaveTroll Avatar
      BigRedCaveTroll

      Then it’ll be time to move south and grow diesel trees.

    2. smalleyxb122 Avatar
      smalleyxb122

      A gasoline analog synthesized from biomass will become a thing. As soon as it becomes cheaper to make it than to pump it, we will have fake oil.

      1. Kiefmo Avatar
        Kiefmo

        I hope that truly becomes a reality and doesn’t remain a pipe dream. I know the tech exists on a small scale now to do this, but it’s going to take massive investment in infrastructure to put it into place on a large scale.
        Long live the V8 for a weekender, but I do look forward to a smooth, silent commute in an EV driven by a central AI that’s also driving every other car around me. Since I no longer worship at the temple of the Oh God TwoWheelsGood, I hate commuting with the burning passion of 1000 suns, even as I try to make it more interesting in a big German lump that struggles to hit 60mph in less than 16 seconds.

    3. Van_Sarockin Avatar
      Van_Sarockin

      There will still be gasoline. You and I may not be able to afford it. You may have to buy a questionable jug it from back alley meth heads or one-toothed moonshiners. It may be on six month back order for drone delivery on this continent. You may throw a huge party when you finally get those five gallons. But there will still be gasoline.

      1. Kiefmo Avatar
        Kiefmo

        That definitely falls under the category of “trouble sourcing”.

        1. Texlenin Avatar
          Texlenin

          Grab a copy of this:
          Synthetic Fuels
          by R.F. Probstein & R.E. Hicks
          ISDN 0-486-44977-7
          Dover Publications, Mineola, NY
          490 pgs
          Maybe a Hoon niche market for us to exploit?

  3. BigRedCaveTroll Avatar
    BigRedCaveTroll

    I was talking about this with my dad over the weekend. Imagine trying to restore a 2016 Mercedes E or S class in 40-50 years. Most modern cars have some incredibly complex electronics that I think would make them anywhere from tricky to impossible to maintain during long term ownership or restore by oneself. I’m curious to see how well those electronics age.

    1. Kiefmo Avatar
      Kiefmo

      With everything being on a centralized bus, it’s actually easier than you think to diagnose a problem.
      Finding replacement parts — that’s what will get you.
      I recently replaced the heater core cutoff valve in my ’81 300SD with a used-but-good valve off of ebay that was from a ’90 420SE. It had an extra return line built in to the plastic case that my engine didn’t use, so I just had to cap it. Other than that, it works fine, but it was my only option short of a complete retrofit from another model line, as that part is no longer produced, even by Mercedes, which produces a ton of parts (or has them produced and sold as MB) for long-gone models.

    2. engineerd Avatar
      engineerd

      I’ve thought about this, too. Like Kiefmo said, diagnosing problems is actually easier when all the computers are on a common bus, but at what point will people just say screw it or replacement sensors, computers, etc. become so scarce that restoration doesn’t make sense.
      Sadly, this doesn’t just go for the cars that come to mind when discussing this (Mercedes, BMW, Lexus…), it goes for all modern cars. Even a lowly Ford Focus has several on board computers for everything from the ECU to window functions to the Sync and MyFordTouch systems.

      1. BigRedCaveTroll Avatar
        BigRedCaveTroll

        I guess that’s more what my train of thought was: If electronics fail and there isn’t a replacement, you’re kind of screwed, but mechanical things are much easier to replicate and repair or substitute. Joe Schmo down the street can restore a 1960s car in his garage with some pretty simple tools and a little bit of knowledge, but trying to restore a modern car like that would probably prove much more challenging.

        1. Wayne Moyer Avatar
          Wayne Moyer

          It will just be a matter of having a laptop to do some of the work. Take the kids of today and they won’t think twice about it. Sure I have a ’74 Spitfire in my garage that is as basic as it gets but I wouldn’t be against garaging a five speed W Body Grand Prix for later down the line. The Grand Prix has all the usual GM issues and then some but this will be the new norm. Especially after rust kills off the affordable classics.

        2. Citric Avatar
          Citric

          The thing is that if you find a guy who understands software you can replace anything that requires it, or make entirely new software to make the old stuff work, and circumvent whatever locks that get in the way. Like Joe Schmo could replace the mechanical bits, but Joe Schmo Jr. and his friends could replace the ECU and all the functions it requires with an old laptop and some custom software.

          1. BigRedCaveTroll Avatar
            BigRedCaveTroll

            To me (probably because I have zero clue how to do that or understanding of it) that sounds really complicated and difficult.

          2. Citric Avatar
            Citric

            But, to the people who enjoy doing it, it’s really easy and fun, and since a lot of people like that release their hobby software open source, it’s going to filter down to people who don’t know how to do it. I’ve seen people do crazy things with software.

          3. BigRedCaveTroll Avatar
            BigRedCaveTroll

            That is something I should really learn to do. It doesn’t seem like it’s horribly expensive to do.

          4. Texlenin Avatar
            Texlenin

            Guys, two automotive examples of that are Megasquirt and Code59.org.
            Enthusiasts hacked EFI bits n bobs together to make something run, or run
            better. BMW and MB will lose their fight to keep software proprietary simply
            because there are enthusiasts, and poor undergrads, willing to spend the
            time cracking code. Information wants to be free.

          5. BigRedCaveTroll Avatar
            BigRedCaveTroll

            I know about Megasquirt (although I’ve never heard of the Code 59-I’ll have to check that out). I wasn’t thinking of that. I was more thinking of the loads of sensors, GPS, radar, and gyroscopes (maybe?) that help the new E and S classes self drive for a short period of time, or the new steer by wire that some cars are coming out with. The engines are still relatively easy to work on, it’s all the chassis and interior electronics I’m worried about. Maybe we’ll all end up driving rat rodded cars that are basically shells with engines running Megasquirt.

      2. kogashiwa Avatar
        kogashiwa

        I wonder if general purpose computers won’t be pressed into service for this sort of thing. Imagine something like a Raspberry Pi with some custom interface ports running an app that simulates whatever it’s used to replace.

        1. Wayne Moyer Avatar
          Wayne Moyer

          That is a great idea.

        2. Texlenin Avatar
          Texlenin

          This is both for your and BigRedCaveTroll…….
          Consider what’s in your smart phone, at this moment, and in ten years.
          That, and retrofitting stuff from elsewhere (where? who knows), I have few
          worries that the rods of tomorrow will rawk, however they are motivated.

    3. mrh1965 Avatar
      mrh1965

      I read an article in the NYT a few years back about a guy who couldn’t obtain some critical electronic part for his ten year old Lincoln or Mercury. Apparently they don’t make/stock those parts forever leaving you to troll ebay, etc, on a regular basis to find it.

    4. Rover 1 Avatar
      Rover 1

      Mercedes Benz is straightforward if W124s and W201s are anything to go by.
      The ones I’d worry about are the Audis and VWs. I was looking at a Aero Audi 200T(5000 Turbo) a year ago and the guy who was selling it talked me out of it. I thought with those galvanised bodies they’d be great. But ABS accumulators are not available and prone to failure. So that’s where they’ve gone.

  4. tonyola Avatar
    tonyola

    I suggest that down the road getting Pontiac-specific parts (particularly LHD items such as dashboards) might become problematical for the Holden-based GTO and G8.

    1. Kiefmo Avatar
      Kiefmo

      When the dash inevitably cracks, just throw some carpet over it. It’s the Pontiac way.

    2. P161911 Avatar
      P161911

      They will be easier than Saab parts.

      1. outback_ute Avatar
        outback_ute

        Fewer LHD Holden’s built than Saabs

        1. P161911 Avatar
          P161911

          GM still exists.

        2. Rover 1 Avatar
          Rover 1

          They sold a lot of Chevy Lumina versions in the Middle East and versions in South America. Over one third of Commodores built wore non-Holden badges.

          1. outback_ute Avatar
            outback_ute

            Is that 1/3 since 1978 or just when they were exporting?

          2. Rover 1 Avatar
            Rover 1

            Yes, you’re right to pull me up on that.
            Since the VT in ’97

  5. P161911 Avatar
    P161911

    The problem comes when cars of medium desirability have very hard to replace or very expensive to replace components. Two that I am thinking of are 4th gen F-body with a tune up that requires dropping the engine and MN-12 T-bird with a $1000 failure prone ABS unit. Most of these types of cars will be scrapped before collectors can get a hold of them.

    1. Kiefmo Avatar
      Kiefmo

      ABS modules in old Fords are repaired with strategically-placed electrical tape and a dose of testicular fortitude.

      1. P161911 Avatar
        P161911

        I don’t think electrical tape works on a leaking master cylinder.

        1. Kiefmo Avatar
          Kiefmo

          I am admittedly not intimately familiar with Ford ABS, but I always assumed that the ABS module was separate from the master cylinder. Evidently that’s a silly assumption.
          In any case, couldn’t you replace the master cylinder with one from a non-ABS car and toss the whole lot?

          1. P161911 Avatar
            P161911

            Based on my friends experience with his T-bird SC, nothing from the non-ABS unit matches up. Different size, different bolt pattern, etc.

          2. BigRedCaveTroll Avatar
            BigRedCaveTroll

            That might be time to just build/piece together your own brake system.

          3. P161911 Avatar
            P161911

            Something most people aren’t willing to do, which is my point for why these cars won’t be around for future collectors.

  6. 0A5599 Avatar
    0A5599

    Hey, mdharrell.
    Go to edmunds.com. Click on “new cars”. Filter down to find what interests you as your transportation circa 2046. Let us know the results.

    1. mdharrell Avatar

      I prefer to let a model, a marque, or indeed an entire national automotive sector fail on its own merits before tipping my hand.

  7. Citric Avatar
    Citric

    Extremely complicated product, made in limited numbers by a now dead company. The Fisker Karma meets all the requirements.
    http://pictures.dealer.com/b/bentleycalgarytc/1020/7a0837a1421b51020af9eb6d2a2f82efx.jpg

    1. kogashiwa Avatar
      kogashiwa

      I still want one.

    2. Ross Ballot Avatar
      Ross Ballot

      Only saving grace is the Ecotec motor…

    3. Tanshanomi Avatar

      There’s a guy in a subdivision on my commute who has daily’d one for about the last three or four years.

      1. Widirstky Matt Avatar
        Widirstky Matt

        is it really “daily driving” when we all know it’s broken down at least one a month:-P

        1. mdharrell Avatar

          That’s comfortably within my own definition of daily driver.

        2. Alff Avatar
          Alff

          Yes! Don’t ever speak to my wife.

  8. The Real Number_Six Avatar
    The Real Number_Six

    We might all be waiting for the new Volvo V60 Polestar to depreciate if it weren’t for the nightmares this is going to produce: http://wardsauto.com/site-files/wardsauto.com/files/imagecache/large_img/uploads/2015/12/10be-specs-volvo-20l.jpg

    1. Kiefmo Avatar
      Kiefmo

      Doesn’t matter, still want.

    2. Maymar Avatar
      Maymar

      I’m going to naively believe that because you can keep a 30 year old 240 Turbo, a 20 year old 850 T5-R, and a 10 year old V60R on the road, the Polestar will also be survivable.
      Mind you, I only aim to own it from 8-16 years old, and then let it be someone else’s problem.

  9. smalleyxb122 Avatar
    smalleyxb122

    Not a modern car, but a point of reference: One thing that was always lauded about maintaining a Fiero was how it shared so many mechanical parts with more common vehicles. Now, the tables have turned, and the only reason that certain parts are still cheap and plentiful for Chevettes and Citations is that they share those parts with the Fiero.

    1. Manic_King Avatar
      Manic_King

      Naah, you’ll be able to get whatever part from abroad, world is full of these.
      https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mitsubishi_Triton#Fourth_generation_.282005.E2.80.932015.29

      1. JayP Avatar
        JayP

        Holy crap. Just copy past to the post above about mythical creatures. What’s why I get trying this on my phone.

  10. Tanshanomi Avatar
  11. outback_ute Avatar
    outback_ute

    How about the cast aluminium structures in the GM Alpha platform cars such as the Cadillac CTS? That would be a bigger than average challenge to replicate.

  12. Alff Avatar
    Alff

    In the limited numbers they’re being sold here, the Alfa 4C will probably never fall out of collectors’ status but will also be a hassle to source parts for. Especially true when Fiat washes their hands of the U.S. again.

    1. outback_ute Avatar
      outback_ute

      The carbon fibre body/tub will get rid of plenty too as they depreciate and dip below the cost of crash repair

  13. Van_Sarockin Avatar
    Van_Sarockin

    This sounds like an X-squared curve. Boring, abundant cars that are easy to keep running will be like unkillable cockroaches. Rare, difficult cars with impossibly scarce parts, that people love, will be kept running. Moderately interesting cars that are a real pain to maintain, will evaporate.

  14. JBsC6 Avatar
    JBsC6

    The 1997 to 2000 corvette c5 has a proble, like this. The active handling computer board or whatever it’s called is no longer available and the cars only run with a disabled active handling system when the computer part breaks. There is no longer any replacement parts available and existing parts can not be repaired.

    1. Vairship Avatar
      Vairship

      And nobody has been able to emulate the “active handling computer board” on their smart phone yet? Because then it simply becomes a matter of hiding your old smart phone with emulation software somewhere in the engine bay (kind of like those points replacement devices that hide under the distributor cap).

  15. nanoop Avatar
    nanoop

    I’ve seen Arduino-based ignition system for two-stroke GDR scooters (Schwalbe): electronics will not be the problem in the future. Brittle plastic will hopefully be replaced by some 3D-printed stuff soon.
    In 30+ years, the backyard workshops that can hone cylinders, mill a top, replace a valve stem, borrow you a coolant pressure tester for a “thank you”, know which bearing would fit, too – those will be gone. There will still be F-car restaurators who are overbooked and take a week’s salary per hour, sure, but the tinkering car hobby, like Mr.Regular is showing us with his Falcon project, will be gone.